Rule 6.3a effectively states that the player must hole out with the same ball played from the teeing ground, but there are exceptions. The first is that if the ball is lost, logically, it can be replaced, but also if it is out of bounds, even if it can be recovered.

As a general rule, it can be said that whenever relief is taken under a Rule, a ball may be replaced. However, when a ball must be replaced at a spot, in general, the player is not allowed to replace the ball. As there are exceptions, it is recommended that Rule 6.3b be read.

In order to play a provisional ball, the original ball must be out of bounds or lost outside a penalty area.

Therefore, if your ball was heading toward the lake (a penalty area by definition), it could not have been lost outside the lake, so it is true that you could not play a provisional ball.

However, there are situations where a provisional ball can be played. Let's look at a couple of examples.

1) My tee shot goes toward an area that is not visible from the tee, and there may be a penalty area in this zone. Even so, if I am not sure that the ball may be lost outside the penalty area, not only can I play a provisional ball, but it is recommended.

2) My ball is heading toward a penalty area, but I notice that there is tall grass before the area where the ball may be lost. There should be 95% or more certainty that the ball is in the penalty area so that I cannot play a provisional ball. When you reach the spot, you must determine the possibility that the ball is in the penalty area or lost outside it, using the same percentage.

We recommend reading Clarification 18.3a/1.

– Well, no. In case the Rule wasn't clear enough, there is Clarification 16.1/1, which makes it absolutely clear:

For example, when taking relief from a sprinkler head (immovable obstruction) in the rough, the nearest point of full relief or relief area may be located on the fairway. If taking relief results in the player being able to drop a ball on the fairway, this is permitted.

Rule 12.2b establishes the restrictions on touching the sand in a bunker. Section (3) states that after the ball has been played and is out of the bunker, the player may touch the sand and smooth it with the rake, and this applies even if the player is required under the rules to take relief by dropping a ball in the bunker, which is the case presented here.

Rule 16.1c(2) gives us the answer. With a penalty stroke, the player may drop outside the bunker, keeping the original resting point between the hole and the point where the ball is dropped.

The solution depends on whether the ball moves before or after being lifted and replaced, see Rule 13.1d(2). If it moves before, the ball must be played from its new resting place. If it moves after being lifted and replaced, it must be replaced at the point from which it moved, which can be estimated. This applies not only to wind but to any natural cause.